Winter could arrive early for parts of the Midwest as El Niño continues to shape November weather across the contiguous United States.
Key points
- The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region are projected to see the most significant temperature departures, potentially bringing an early taste of winter.
- Most of the country will experience near‑average or above‑average temperatures, with only the western states staying below normal.
- Precipitation will be roughly average nationwide, but the Pacific Northwest is expected to stay drier while the Gulf‑to‑mid‑Atlantic corridor may be wetter.
The Weather Company released its November outlook on October 29, noting that a record‑strength El Niño is still influencing conditions across the Lower 48. While many Americans will wait another month for a clear sign of winter, the forecast points to notable temperature swings in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
The map of projected temperatures shows the deepest reds—from the Dakotas through northern Indiana and across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes—indicating the largest departures from normal. Residents in these areas may experience an earlier onset of colder weather compared with the rest of the country.
Temperature trends across the Lower 48
Conversely, average to slightly above‑average temperatures are expected from New England down the Atlantic seaboard to Florida, and from Texas across the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest. Only limited portions of California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Utah are projected to stay below normal, keeping those western locales cooler than the national average.
Precipitation is forecast to be near the seasonal norm overall, but with regional variations. The Pacific Northwest is the only area expected to receive below‑average rainfall, while the Gulf Coast of Texas through the mid‑Atlantic (including Maryland) may see above‑average totals. Slightly above‑average precipitation also stretches from California and southern New Mexico to a broad swath from Texas up to southern New Hampshire.
Precipitation outlook by region
El Niño’s fingerprints are evident: a generally warmer and drier pattern in the northern tier, drier conditions in the Midwest, and wetter weather across the South. However, forecasters caution that the current El Niño does not perfectly match historic templates, leaving some uncertainty about the exact timing and intensity of early winter conditions.
Reader questions
How is El Niño expected to affect November temperatures?
El Niño typically brings warmer‑than‑average conditions in the northern United States and cooler, below‑average temperatures in parts of the West, though the current pattern does not align perfectly with historic models.
Which regions might experience an early winter?
The Dakotas, northern Indiana, the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes area are forecast to have the largest temperature departures, suggesting a higher chance of early cold snaps.
Will November be wetter than usual?
Overall precipitation is expected to be near average, but the Pacific Northwest may be drier, while the Gulf Coast through the mid‑Atlantic states could see above‑average rainfall.
Source: weather.com